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BIAnalytix Tip Summary: Use Last Year's Pacing to Forecast Future Revenue

If you retain historical data in your data warehouse that includes the pacing details of the state of forward bookings on a daily basis, then a future revenue forecast can be created on any current day based on this business data stored one year ago. To forecast the revenue for a future period from the current bookings (we shall call this $C), you first look at bookings for the same date one year ago for the same corresponding future period (we shall call this $A). The final invoicing totals for this past period are also retrieved from the historical data (we shall call this $B). The ratio of growth of these bookings last year ($B/$A) is then applied to the current level of bookings ($C) to obtain the Pacing Forecast ($C*($B/$A))

The previous dates that are utilized for comparison should reflect the historical window that is most similar to the current situation. This could be four (4) years ago for say Olympics programming sales, or perhaps as recently as last quarter for a new series that has little history. The only limitation should be that the final bookings are invoiced for this comparison period (by that we mean that the period has passed). Another key element of the comparison is that the previous period being compared must have the same number of days of business. This for the most part precludes a Broadcast Calendar and implies a Fiscal Reporting calendar for most situations. Another consideration for a valid comparison is that the previous comparison date should fall on the same day of the week as the current day (again supported by a Fiscal Calendar).

BIAnalytix is a data warehouse and business intelligence system from Decentrix which includes all the advanced tools necessary for powerful forecasts to be based upon past pacing performance using a stable Fiscal Calendar, and delivers the resulting exception analysis for a powerful media BI system.

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