BIAnalytix Tip Summary: Using Fiscal Reporting Calendars for Forecasting

Many Media reports today suffer from their inability to compare current business periods to previous periods that are of exactly the same duration and days of the week. Any forecasting that uses past data must have a meaningful definition of the date in the past that corresponds to the current business period being analyzed as well as the definition of a corresponding period in the past for any future period. Most calendars (such as the Standard Broadcast calendar or the Gregorian calendar) cannot guarantee that a month or quarter last year will have the same number of days. A fiscal reporting calendar is defined as one which has periods and dates that are consistent from one year to the next. We highly recommend that if your corporation has a defined Fiscal Calendar, then it should have these useful properties. If not then defining an additional Fiscal Reporting Calendar that does have these characteristics will be very important for consistent comparisons with historical data.

A Fiscal Reporting Calendar will have a comparable date in the calendar appear on the same day of week every year. It will have the same number of weeks and days in the month every year. It will have the same number of weeks in each quarter each year (apart from a required occasional adjustment). So any comparisons using a Fiscal Reporting Calendar will be true comparisons of business differences rather than the consequence of the difference in the calendar from year to year.

BIAnalytix is a data warehouse and business intelligence system from Decentrix which supports three calendars including a stable Fiscal calendar. The resulting stability of past comparisons supports forecasting models based on real trends rather than calendar differences from year to year.

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