BIAnalytix Tip Summary: How to Forecast Inventory Sellout

A Pacing Forecast technique which uses last year’s pacing to forecast future revenue can be applied to many other measures in addition to revenue (see archived tip number 5.3). In particular, the forecast of sold inventory for a future period can be made by obtaining the pacing level of sold inventory on the same date last year as well as the final level of sell-out at that date last year. This growth ratio can be then applied to the current level of sellout to forecast (predict) the final level of sellout (a simple forecast but a useful one). Note that the bookings that are included in this forecast should be limited to the normal paid bookings excluding fillers and bonus spots so as not to distort the conclusion.

This type of Pacing Forecast is suitable for “exception” filtering and highlighting because the forecast of oversell is likely to be a simple indication for an increased revenue opportunity with the current remaining inventory. By reporting forecasts of a potential oversell, the analysis can highlight all the opportunities to potentially achieve higher revenue through increased rates.

BIAnalytix is a data warehouse and business intelligence system from Decentrix which includes all the advanced tools necessary for forecasts using audience impacts to forecast revenue and can include an unlimited number of audience projection books from your research department.

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